Rizhao Yuqi 0–1 Tai'an Tiankuang: Result & Stats

Rizhao Yuqi

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tai'an Tiankuang

4/10/2024

League Two · Round 4Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Rizhao Yuqi39%

×Draw30%

Tai'an Tiankuang30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rizhao YuqiExpected goals in this matchTai'an Tiankuang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.94

Rizhao Yuqi

1.11

Tai'an Tiankuang

0.94

Rizhao Yuqi creates 18% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 54 away

0.92

creates per match

1.07

0.81

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Rizhao Yuqi

0.92

Tai'an Tiankuang

1.07

allows per match

Rizhao Yuqi

0.81

Tai'an Tiankuang

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rizhao Yuqi+0.00on par

Tai'an Tiankuang+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rizhao Yuqi ↓

Tai'an Tiankuang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Rizhao Yuqi or draw

70%

Rizhao Yuqi or Tai'an Tiankuang

70%

Draw or Tai'an Tiankuang

61%

Winning margin

Rizhao Yuqi wins by 2+

16%

Tai'an Tiankuang wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rizhao Yuqi 1+ goals

67%

Rizhao Yuqi 2+ goals

30%

Rizhao Yuqi 3+ goals

10%

Tai'an Tiankuang 1+ goals

61%

Tai'an Tiankuang 2+ goals

24%

Tai'an Tiankuang 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rizhao Yuqi (draw refunded)

56%

Tai'an Tiankuang (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rizhao Yuqi at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.81 · 36 matches

Tai'an Tiankuang away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rizhao Yuqi attack 0.92 + Tai'an Tiankuang defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.11

Tai'an Tiankuang attack 1.07 + Rizhao Yuqi defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rizhao Yuqi scores more

39%

level

30%

Tai'an Tiankuang scores more

30%

Rizhao Yuqi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rizhao Yuqi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff