Tadjenant 1–0 Paradou AC: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Tadjenant

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Paradou AC

D. Terbah 70'

11/22/2018

Ligue 1 · Round 15Stade Ismail Lahoua (Tadjenanet)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tadjenant43%

×Draw32%

Paradou AC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TadjenantExpected goals in this matchParadou AC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.77

Tadjenant

1.09

Paradou AC

0.77

Tadjenant creates 42% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 120 away

0.87

creates per match

1.07

0.47

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Tadjenant

0.87

Paradou AC

1.07

allows per match

Tadjenant

0.47

Paradou AC

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tadjenant+0.00on par

Paradou AC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tadjenant ↓

Paradou AC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Tadjenant or draw

74%

Tadjenant or Paradou AC

68%

Draw or Paradou AC

57%

Winning margin

Tadjenant wins by 2+

18%

Paradou AC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tadjenant 1+ goals

66%

Tadjenant 2+ goals

30%

Tadjenant 3+ goals

10%

Paradou AC 1+ goals

54%

Paradou AC 2+ goals

18%

Paradou AC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Tadjenant (draw refunded)

63%

Paradou AC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tadjenant at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

Paradou AC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tadjenant attack 0.87 + Paradou AC defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.09

Paradou AC attack 1.07 + Tadjenant defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tadjenant scores more

43%

level

32%

Paradou AC scores more

26%

Tadjenant at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tadjenant will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'

D. Terbah

Tadjenant

Paradou