Tadjenant 1–2 Paradou AC: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Tadjenant

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Paradou AC

M. Belmokhtar 90+5'

Z. Naidji 88' (pen)

F. El Melali 33'

3/10/2018

Ligue 1 · Round 22Stade Ismail Lahoua (Tadjenanet)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tadjenant42%

×Draw31%

Paradou AC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TadjenantExpected goals in this matchParadou AC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.82

Tadjenant

1.10

Paradou AC

0.82

Tadjenant creates 34% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 121 away

0.88

creates per match

1.08

0.56

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Tadjenant

0.88

Paradou AC

1.08

allows per match

Tadjenant

0.56

Paradou AC

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tadjenant+0.00on par

Paradou AC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tadjenant ↓

Paradou AC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Tadjenant or draw

73%

Tadjenant or Paradou AC

69%

Draw or Paradou AC

58%

Winning margin

Tadjenant wins by 2+

17%

Paradou AC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tadjenant 1+ goals

67%

Tadjenant 2+ goals

30%

Tadjenant 3+ goals

10%

Paradou AC 1+ goals

56%

Paradou AC 2+ goals

20%

Paradou AC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Tadjenant (draw refunded)

61%

Paradou AC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tadjenant at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.56 · 16 matches

Paradou AC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.32 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tadjenant attack 0.88 + Paradou AC defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

Paradou AC attack 1.08 + Tadjenant defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tadjenant scores more

42%

level

31%

Paradou AC scores more

27%

Tadjenant at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tadjenant will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

F. El Melali

88'

Z. NaidjiPenalty

90+5'

M. Belmokhtar

Tadjenant

Paradou