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Paradou AC vs Tadjenant — Ligue 1 2018

Paradou AC
Paradou AC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tadjenant
Tadjenant
5/26/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Paradou AC56%
×Draw24%
Tadjenant20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paradou AC
1.74
Tadjenant
0.93

Paradou AC creates 87% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 15 away

creates per match

Paradou AC
1.41
Tadjenant
0.87

allows per match

Paradou AC
0.98
Tadjenant
2.07

finishing

Paradou AC+0.00on par
Tadjenant+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paradou AC ↓

Tadjenant →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Paradou AC or draw
80%
Paradou AC or Tadjenant
76%
Draw or Tadjenant
44%

Winning margin

Paradou AC wins by 2+
32%
Tadjenant wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Paradou AC 1+ goals
82%
Paradou AC 2+ goals
52%
Paradou AC 3+ goals
25%
Tadjenant 1+ goals
61%
Tadjenant 2+ goals
24%
Tadjenant 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Paradou AC (draw refunded)
74%
Tadjenant (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paradou AC at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.98 · 122 matches

Tadjenant away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paradou AC attack 1.41 + Tadjenant defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.74

Tadjenant attack 0.87 + Paradou AC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Paradou AC scores more
56%
level
24%
Tadjenant scores more
20%

Paradou AC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Paradou AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paradou AC 3 – 0 Tadjenant

Paradou AC beat Tadjenant 3-0 in Ligue 1 on May 26, 2019.