Tacoma Defiance 1–1 Real Monarchs: Result & Stats

Tacoma Defiance

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Monarchs

9/14/2024

MLS Next Pro · Round 36Starfire Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Tacoma Defiance62%

×Draw19%

Real Monarchs19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tacoma DefianceExpected goals in this matchReal Monarchs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.23

Tacoma Defiance

2.33

Real Monarchs

1.23

Tacoma Defiance creates 89% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 49 away

2.52

creates per match

1.16

1.31

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Tacoma Defiance

2.52

Real Monarchs

1.16

allows per match

Tacoma Defiance

1.31

Real Monarchs

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tacoma Defiance+0.00on par

Real Monarchs+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacoma Defiance ↓

Real Monarchs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Tacoma Defiance or draw

81%

Tacoma Defiance or Real Monarchs

81%

Draw or Real Monarchs

38%

Winning margin

Tacoma Defiance wins by 2+

39%

Real Monarchs wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Tacoma Defiance 1+ goals

90%

Tacoma Defiance 2+ goals

67%

Tacoma Defiance 3+ goals

41%

Real Monarchs 1+ goals

71%

Real Monarchs 2+ goals

35%

Real Monarchs 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tacoma Defiance (draw refunded)

76%

Real Monarchs (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacoma Defiance at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.31 · 54 matches

Real Monarchs away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.14 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacoma Defiance attack 2.52 + Real Monarchs defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.33

Real Monarchs attack 1.16 + Tacoma Defiance defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Tacoma Defiance scores more

62%

level

19%

Real Monarchs scores more

19%

Tacoma Defiance at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Tacoma Defiance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tacoma Defiance vs Real Monarchs

Tacoma Defiance and Real Monarchs drew 1-1 in MLS Next Pro on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Starfire Sports Stadium in Tukwila, Washington.

Tacoma Defiance vs Real Monarchs — MLS Next Pro 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Tacoma Defiance vs Real Monarchs