Real Monarchs vs Tacoma Defiance — MLS Next Pro 2022
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 50+ matches
Real Monarchs43%
Tacoma Defiance34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Real Monarchs creates 14% more chances
Season form · 50 home / 51 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over67
- Under33
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes67
- No33
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Real Monarchs ↓
Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Real Monarchs at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.58 · 50 matches
Tacoma Defiance away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.96 · 51 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Real Monarchs attack 1.72 + Tacoma Defiance defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.84
Tacoma Defiance attack 1.65 + Real Monarchs defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.61
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Real Monarchs at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Real Monarchs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Columbus Crew II
Toronto II
Rochester Rhinos
Bethlehem Steel
New York City II
Fort Lauderdale CF
New England II
Chicago FC United
Orlando City II
FC Cincinnati IITacoma Defiance
St. Louis City II
Houston Dynamo FC II
North Texas
San Jose Earthquakes II
Minnesota United II
Whitecaps II
Colorado Rapids II
Swope Park RangersReal Monarchs
Portland Timbers IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Real Monarchs host Tacoma Defiance on Monday, 1 September 2025 at 01:30. The match is part of the MLS Next Pro 2022/2023 season.
Match Recap: Real Monarchs vs Tacoma Defiance
Real Monarchs beat Tacoma Defiance 3-0 in MLS Next Pro on September 1, 2025.
Goals: B. Campaz (33'), J. Barea (66'), A. Hezarkhani (86').
The match was played at Zions Bank Stadium.