Real Monarchs 2–1 Tacoma Defiance: Result & Stats

Real Monarchs

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tacoma Defiance

J. Barea 64', 53'

J. Khoury 40'

6/12/2025

MLS Next Pro · Round 17Zions Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Real Monarchs43%

×Draw22%

Tacoma Defiance34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real MonarchsExpected goals in this matchTacoma Defiance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.61

Real Monarchs

1.84

Tacoma Defiance

1.61

Real Monarchs creates 14% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 51 away

1.72

creates per match

1.65

1.58

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Real Monarchs

1.72

Tacoma Defiance

1.65

allows per match

Real Monarchs

1.58

Tacoma Defiance

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Monarchs+0.00on par

Tacoma Defiance+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Monarchs ↓

Tacoma Defiance →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Real Monarchs or draw

66%

Real Monarchs or Tacoma Defiance

78%

Draw or Tacoma Defiance

57%

Winning margin

Real Monarchs wins by 2+

23%

Tacoma Defiance wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Real Monarchs 1+ goals

84%

Real Monarchs 2+ goals

55%

Real Monarchs 3+ goals

28%

Tacoma Defiance 1+ goals

80%

Tacoma Defiance 2+ goals

48%

Tacoma Defiance 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Real Monarchs (draw refunded)

56%

Tacoma Defiance (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Monarchs at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.58 · 50 matches

Tacoma Defiance away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.96 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Monarchs attack 1.72 + Tacoma Defiance defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.84

Tacoma Defiance attack 1.65 + Real Monarchs defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Real Monarchs scores more

43%

level

22%

Tacoma Defiance scores more

34%

Real Monarchs at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Real Monarchs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

40'

53'

61'

61'

63'

63'

L. Gonzalez← R. Pedder

64'

72'

75'

76'

79'

O. Touray← O. Anderson

81'

E. Katsaros← D. Alvarez

82'

Y. Tsukanome← B. Diaw

84'

P. Kingston

87'

I. Amparo← J. Barea

Real

Tacoma

30

Helleren

44

Gaffney

31

▼

Diaw

38

Yamada

47

▼

Alvarez

45

Kingston

32

▼

Kang

34

▼

Robles

48

⚽

Khoury

42

▼

90

31

52

67

81

77

32

76

87

▼

Campaz

36

⚽2

▼

Barea

71

▼

Rocio

30

▼

Anderson

Manager: Mark Lowry

61'▲O. Marquez←▼D. Rocio

61'▲C. Duke←▼B. Campaz

79'▲O. Touray←▼O. Anderson

87'▲I. Amparo←▼J. Barea

Real Monarchs substitutes

61Amparo37Rivera56Touray89Berrios24Kerkvliet40Marquez80Grayson94Duke

Manager: Wade Webber

63'▲O. Hassan←▼D. Robles

63'▲L. Gonzalez←▼R. Pedder

72'▲G. Sandnes←▼J. Kang

81'▲E. Katsaros←▼D. Alvarez

82'▲Y. Tsukanome←▼B. Diaw

Tacoma Defiance substitutes

83Katsaros53Sandnes41Shour36Tsukanome46Baer43Hassan59Gonzalez