Tabora United 2–1 Mtibwa Sugar: Result & Stats

Tabora United

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Mtibwa Sugar

S. Chilunda 90'

C. Tebandeke 9'

S. Mkopi 2'

5/20/2026

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 24Ali Hassan Mwinyi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Tabora United52%

×Draw27%

Mtibwa Sugar22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tabora UnitedExpected goals in this matchMtibwa Sugar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.85

Tabora United

1.47

Mtibwa Sugar

0.85

Tabora United creates 73% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

1.25

creates per match

0.62

1.08

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Tabora United

1.25

Mtibwa Sugar

0.62

allows per match

Tabora United

1.08

Mtibwa Sugar

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tabora United+0.00on par

Mtibwa Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tabora United ↓

Mtibwa Sugar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tabora United or draw

78%

Tabora United or Mtibwa Sugar

73%

Draw or Mtibwa Sugar

48%

Winning margin

Tabora United wins by 2+

26%

Mtibwa Sugar wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Tabora United 1+ goals

77%

Tabora United 2+ goals

43%

Tabora United 3+ goals

18%

Mtibwa Sugar 1+ goals

57%

Mtibwa Sugar 2+ goals

21%

Mtibwa Sugar 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Tabora United (draw refunded)

70%

Mtibwa Sugar (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tabora United at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Mtibwa Sugar away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tabora United attack 1.25 + Mtibwa Sugar defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.47

Mtibwa Sugar attack 0.62 + Tabora United defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tabora United scores more

52%

level

27%

Mtibwa Sugar scores more

22%

Tabora United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tabora United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

S. Mkopi

9'

C. Tebandeke

31'

K. Mugoya← A. Mapaka

46'

R. Salum← E. Jiah

57'

P. Datius

60'

R. Abdallah← S. Mkopi

64'

S. Chilunda← A. Nganzi

85'

E. Mwashilindi← F. Magata

90'

S. Chilunda↳ R. Salum

Tabora

Mtibwa

31

6

3

12

13

48

20

21

▼

Magata

69

Evance

45

⚽

▼

17

1

35

45

32

4

⚽

33

30

14

16

▼

Mapaka

21

▼

Nganzi

46

▼

Jiah

31'▲K. Mugoya←▼A. Mapaka

46'▲R. Salum←▼E. Jiah

64'▲S. Chilunda←▼A. Nganzi

Tabora United substitutes

39Bakari5Kombo22Lazarus6Mugoya11Salum26Manie57Makoye70Mrisho10Chilunda

60'▲R. Abdallah←▼S. Mkopi

85'▲E. Mwashilindi←▼F. Magata

Mtibwa Sugar substitutes

38Malimi15KyaruziMarashiMohamed2Mwashilindi11Mhesa25Hilary50MkalawaAbdallah10Hafidh