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Tabora United vs Mtibwa Sugar — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Tabora United
Tabora United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Mtibwa Sugar
Mtibwa Sugar
J. Nakibinge 32'
E. Okutu 19'
Tiote 75'
12/1/2023Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 11Ali Hassan Mwinyi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Tabora United57%
×Draw26%
Mtibwa Sugar17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tabora United
1.48
Mtibwa Sugar
0.66

Tabora United creates 124% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Tabora United
1.27
Mtibwa Sugar
0.50

allows per match

Tabora United
0.82
Mtibwa Sugar
1.68

finishing

Tabora United+0.00on par
Mtibwa Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tabora United ↓

Mtibwa Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tabora United or draw
83%
Tabora United or Mtibwa Sugar
74%
Draw or Mtibwa Sugar
43%

Winning margin

Tabora United wins by 2+
30%
Mtibwa Sugar wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Tabora United 1+ goals
77%
Tabora United 2+ goals
43%
Tabora United 3+ goals
19%
Mtibwa Sugar 1+ goals
48%
Mtibwa Sugar 2+ goals
14%
Mtibwa Sugar 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Tabora United (draw refunded)
77%
Mtibwa Sugar (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tabora United at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.82 · 22 matches

Mtibwa Sugar away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tabora United attack 1.27 + Mtibwa Sugar defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.48

Mtibwa Sugar attack 0.50 + Tabora United defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tabora United scores more
57%
level
26%
Mtibwa Sugar scores more
17%

Tabora United at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Tabora United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
E. Okutu
32'
J. Nakibinge
75'
Tiote
90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Tabora United 2–1 Mtibwa Sugar

Tabora United beat Mtibwa Sugar 2-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 1, 2023.

Goals: E. Okutu (19'), J. Nakibinge (32'), Tiote (75').

The match was played at Ali Hassan Mwinyi Stadium in Tabora.