Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mtibwa Sugar vs Tabora United — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Mtibwa Sugar
Mtibwa Sugar
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tabora United
Tabora United
N. Mosha 78'
C. Ilanfya 55'
J. S. Mwanuke 15'
5/9/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 26Jamhuri Stadium Morogoro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Mtibwa Sugar38%
×Draw27%
Tabora United36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mtibwa Sugar
1.31
Tabora United
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Mtibwa Sugar
1.27
Tabora United
1.00

allows per match

Mtibwa Sugar
1.55
Tabora United
1.36

finishing

Mtibwa Sugar+0.00on par
Tabora United+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mtibwa Sugar ↓

Tabora United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mtibwa Sugar or draw
64%
Mtibwa Sugar or Tabora United
73%
Draw or Tabora United
62%

Winning margin

Mtibwa Sugar wins by 2+
17%
Tabora United wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mtibwa Sugar 1+ goals
73%
Mtibwa Sugar 2+ goals
38%
Mtibwa Sugar 3+ goals
14%
Tabora United 1+ goals
72%
Tabora United 2+ goals
36%
Tabora United 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mtibwa Sugar (draw refunded)
51%
Tabora United (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mtibwa Sugar at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

Tabora United away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mtibwa Sugar attack 1.27 + Tabora United defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Tabora United attack 1.00 + Mtibwa Sugar defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mtibwa Sugar scores more
38%
level
27%
Tabora United scores more
36%

Mtibwa Sugar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mtibwa Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
J. S. Mwanuke
55'
C. Ilanfya
78'
N. Mosha

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Mtibwa Sugar 3–0 Tabora United

Mtibwa Sugar beat Tabora United 3-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on May 9, 2024.

Goals: J. S. Mwanuke (15'), C. Ilanfya (55'), N. Mosha (78').

The match was played at Jamhuri Stadium Morogoro in Morogoro.