Tabor Sežana 3–3 Brinje-Grosuplje: Result & Stats

Tabor Sežana

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Brinje-Grosuplje

S. Petkov 69', 52' (pen)

D. Stančič 63'

M. Kene 82' (pen), 25'

A. Zlatkov 35'

4/5/2025

2. SNL · Round 22Stadion Rajko Štolfa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Tabor Sežana33%

×Draw25%

Brinje-Grosuplje42%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tabor SežanaExpected goals in this matchBrinje-Grosuplje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.56

Tabor Sežana

1.35

Brinje-Grosuplje

1.56

Brinje-Grosuplje creates 16% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

1.49

creates per match

1.80

1.33

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Tabor Sežana

1.49

Brinje-Grosuplje

1.80

allows per match

Tabor Sežana

1.33

Brinje-Grosuplje

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tabor Sežana+0.00on par

Brinje-Grosuplje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tabor Sežana ↓

Brinje-Grosuplje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Tabor Sežana or draw

58%

Tabor Sežana or Brinje-Grosuplje

75%

Draw or Brinje-Grosuplje

67%

Winning margin

Tabor Sežana wins by 2+

15%

Brinje-Grosuplje wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Tabor Sežana 1+ goals

74%

Tabor Sežana 2+ goals

39%

Tabor Sežana 3+ goals

15%

Brinje-Grosuplje 1+ goals

79%

Brinje-Grosuplje 2+ goals

46%

Brinje-Grosuplje 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Tabor Sežana (draw refunded)

44%

Brinje-Grosuplje (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tabor Sežana at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

Brinje-Grosuplje away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tabor Sežana attack 1.49 + Brinje-Grosuplje defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.35

Brinje-Grosuplje attack 1.80 + Tabor Sežana defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tabor Sežana scores more

33%

level

25%

Brinje-Grosuplje scores more

42%

Brinje-Grosuplje at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Brinje-Grosuplje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

M. Kene

35'

A. Zlatkov

46'

F. Rose← I. Dimitrov

46'

T. Pantelić← T. Georgiev

52'

S. PetkovPenalty

63'

65'

69'

73'

73'

78'

N. Neychev← D. Stančič

78'

J. Marinić← K. Benkič

82'

M. KenePenalty

88'

F. Tahiraj← S. Petkov

Tabor

Brinje-Grosuplje

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽2

▼

Petkov

Fuseini

⚽

▼

Stančič

▼

Dimitrov

Manager: N. Kosmač

46'▲F. Rose←▼I. Dimitrov

46'▲T. Pantelić←▼T. Georgiev

78'▲N. Neychev←▼D. Stančič

88'▲F. Tahiraj←▼S. Petkov

Tabor Sežana substitutes

RosePantelićNeychevTahirajZerialiKalšekPijažaSlačekFortuna

Manager: G. Markovič

65'▲J. Kovač←▼N. Zrnec

78'▲J. Marinić←▼K. Benkič

Brinje-Grosuplje substitutes

KovačMarinićStamenkovićVitamvasVerbičLjubijankićTrobec