Brinje-Grosuplje 1–2 Tabor Sežana: Result & Stats

Brinje-Grosuplje

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Tabor Sežana

Unknown 74'

U. Jamiu 46'

S. Krapukhin 10'

7/10/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Brinje-Grosuplje34%

×Draw22%

Tabor Sežana44%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brinje-GrosupljeExpected goals in this matchTabor Sežana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.95

Brinje-Grosuplje

1.70

Tabor Sežana

1.95

Tabor Sežana creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

0.89

creates per match

1.33

2.56

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Brinje-Grosuplje

0.89

Tabor Sežana

1.33

allows per match

Brinje-Grosuplje

2.56

Tabor Sežana

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brinje-Grosuplje+0.00on par

Tabor Sežana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brinje-Grosuplje ↓

Tabor Sežana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Brinje-Grosuplje or draw

56%

Brinje-Grosuplje or Tabor Sežana

78%

Draw or Tabor Sežana

66%

Winning margin

Brinje-Grosuplje wins by 2+

17%

Tabor Sežana wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Brinje-Grosuplje 1+ goals

82%

Brinje-Grosuplje 2+ goals

51%

Brinje-Grosuplje 3+ goals

24%

Tabor Sežana 1+ goals

86%

Tabor Sežana 2+ goals

58%

Tabor Sežana 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Brinje-Grosuplje (draw refunded)

44%

Tabor Sežana (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brinje-Grosuplje at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.56 · 9 matches

Tabor Sežana away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brinje-Grosuplje attack 0.89 + Tabor Sežana defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.70

Tabor Sežana attack 1.33 + Brinje-Grosuplje defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Brinje-Grosuplje scores more

34%

level

22%

Tabor Sežana scores more

44%

Tabor Sežana at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tabor Sežana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

S. Krapukhin

46'

U. Jamiu

74'

Brinje-Grosuplje

Tabor

Manager: Goran Markovic

Manager: N. Kosmač