Brinje-Grosuplje 2–2 Tabor Sežana: Result & Stats

Brinje-Grosuplje

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Tabor Sežana

J. Zorica 83' (pen)

J. Marinić 61'

D. Stančič 34'

N. Zlatev 28'

9/20/2024

2. SNL · Round 7Stadion Ivančna Gorica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Brinje-Grosuplje47%

×Draw25%

Tabor Sežana29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brinje-GrosupljeExpected goals in this matchTabor Sežana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.19

Brinje-Grosuplje

1.59

Tabor Sežana

1.19

Brinje-Grosuplje creates 34% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

1.70

creates per match

1.44

0.93

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Brinje-Grosuplje

1.70

Tabor Sežana

1.44

allows per match

Brinje-Grosuplje

0.93

Tabor Sežana

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brinje-Grosuplje+0.00on par

Tabor Sežana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brinje-Grosuplje ↓

Tabor Sežana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Brinje-Grosuplje or draw

71%

Brinje-Grosuplje or Tabor Sežana

75%

Draw or Tabor Sežana

53%

Winning margin

Brinje-Grosuplje wins by 2+

24%

Tabor Sežana wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Brinje-Grosuplje 1+ goals

80%

Brinje-Grosuplje 2+ goals

47%

Brinje-Grosuplje 3+ goals

21%

Tabor Sežana 1+ goals

70%

Tabor Sežana 2+ goals

33%

Tabor Sežana 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Brinje-Grosuplje (draw refunded)

62%

Tabor Sežana (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brinje-Grosuplje at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

Tabor Sežana away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.49 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brinje-Grosuplje attack 1.70 + Tabor Sežana defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.59

Tabor Sežana attack 1.44 + Brinje-Grosuplje defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Brinje-Grosuplje scores more

47%

level

25%

Tabor Sežana scores more

29%

Brinje-Grosuplje at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Brinje-Grosuplje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

N. Zlatev

34'

D. Stančič

51'

L. Turudija← N. Zrnec

61'

J. Marinić

64'

N. Jovićević← K. Kovač

71'

V. Štefanec← N. Zlatev

80'

J. Kovač← M. Kene

80'

J. Zorica← A. Dergić

83'

J. ZoricaPenalty

87'

M. Vrabec← A. Fuseini

87'

N. Fortuna← D. Stančič

Brinje-Grosuplje

Tabor

▼

⚽

▼

Stančič

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: G. Markovič

51'▲L. Turudija←▼N. Zrnec

64'▲N. Jovićević←▼K. Kovač

80'▲J. Kovač←▼M. Kene

80'▲J. Zorica←▼A. Dergić

Brinje-Grosuplje substitutes

TurudijaJovićevićKovačZoricaCenerZajcZrnecMarkovićKlašnja

Manager: N. Kosmač

71'▲V. Štefanec←▼N. Zlatev

87'▲M. Vrabec←▼A. Fuseini

87'▲N. Fortuna←▼D. Stančič

Tabor Sežana substitutes

ŠtefanecVrabecFortunaJakupovićMedićPavlovićFernettiUkmarRupnik