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Sydney vs SHANGHAI SIPG — AFC Champions League 2018

Sydney
Sydney
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
SHANGHAI SIPG
SHANGHAI SIPG
11/19/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Khalifa International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sydney39%
×Draw26%
SHANGHAI SIPG35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney
1.41
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 21 away

creates per match

Sydney
1.15
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.05

allows per match

Sydney
1.62
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.67

finishing

Sydney+0.00on par
SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney ↓

SHANGHAI SIPG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sydney or draw
65%
Sydney or SHANGHAI SIPG
74%
Draw or SHANGHAI SIPG
61%

Winning margin

Sydney wins by 2+
18%
SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sydney 1+ goals
76%
Sydney 2+ goals
41%
Sydney 3+ goals
17%
SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals
74%
SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals
38%
SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sydney (draw refunded)
52%
SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

SHANGHAI SIPG away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney attack 1.15 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.41

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.05 + Sydney defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sydney scores more
39%
level
26%
SHANGHAI SIPG scores more
35%

Sydney at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sydney vs SHANGHAI SIPG

SHANGHAI SIPG beat Sydney 2-1 in AFC Champions League on November 19, 2020.

The match was played at Khalifa International Stadium in Doha.