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SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sydney FC — AFC Champions League 2018

SHANGHAI SIPG
SHANGHAI SIPG
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sydney FC
Sydney FC
4/23/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 4Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG39%
×Draw26%
Sydney FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SHANGHAI SIPG
1.37
Sydney FC
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 12 away

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
1.32
Sydney FC
1.08

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
1.48
Sydney FC
1.42

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par
Sydney FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Sydney FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw
65%
SHANGHAI SIPG or Sydney FC
74%
Draw or Sydney FC
61%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+
18%
Sydney FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals
75%
SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals
40%
SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals
16%
Sydney FC 1+ goals
72%
Sydney FC 2+ goals
37%
Sydney FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)
53%
Sydney FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

Sydney FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.32 + Sydney FC defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.37

Sydney FC attack 1.08 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more
39%
level
26%
Sydney FC scores more
35%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: SHANGHAI SIPG 2–2 Sydney FC

SHANGHAI SIPG and Sydney FC drew 2-2 in AFC Champions League on April 23, 2019.

The match was played at Shanghai Stadium in Shanghai.