Sydney FC 3–3 SHANGHAI SIPG: Result & Stats

Sydney FC

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

SHANGHAI SIPG

4/10/2019

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3WIN Jubilee Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sydney FC39%

×Draw26%

SHANGHAI SIPG35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sydney FCExpected goals in this matchSHANGHAI SIPG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.33

Sydney FC

1.41

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 21 away

1.15

creates per match

1.05

1.62

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Sydney FC

1.15

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.05

allows per match

Sydney FC

1.62

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sydney FC+0.00on par

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney FC ↓

SHANGHAI SIPG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sydney FC or draw

65%

Sydney FC or SHANGHAI SIPG

74%

Draw or SHANGHAI SIPG

61%

Winning margin

Sydney FC wins by 2+

18%

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sydney FC 1+ goals

76%

Sydney FC 2+ goals

41%

Sydney FC 3+ goals

17%

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

74%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

38%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sydney FC (draw refunded)

52%

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney FC at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

SHANGHAI SIPG away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney FC attack 1.15 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.41

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.05 + Sydney FC defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sydney FC scores more

39%

level

26%

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

35%

Sydney FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sydney FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff