Swindon Town 2–1 Port Vale: Result & Stats

Swindon Town

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Port Vale

H. McKirdy 68', 26'

J. Wilson 83'

5/15/2022

League Two · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsThe County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Swindon Town42%

×Draw25%

Port Vale33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swindon TownExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.34

Swindon Town

1.53

Port Vale

1.34

Swindon Town creates 14% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 36 away

1.87

creates per match

1.42

1.27

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Swindon Town

1.87

Port Vale

1.42

allows per match

Swindon Town

1.27

Port Vale

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw

67%

Swindon Town or Port Vale

75%

Draw or Port Vale

58%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+

21%

Port Vale wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals

78%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

45%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

20%

Port Vale 1+ goals

74%

Port Vale 2+ goals

39%

Port Vale 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

56%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.87 + Port Vale defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.53

Port Vale attack 1.42 + Swindon Town defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Swindon Town scores more

42%

level

25%

Port Vale scores more

33%

Swindon Town at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

H. McKirdy

Swindon Town · F

8.5

Match Events

26'

H. McKirdy↳ J. Williams

32'

Josh Davison

42'

Harry Charsley

46'

J. Taylor← H. Charsley

63'

J. Proctor← R. Edmondson

68'

H. McKirdy

74'

A. Odimayo← M. Egbo

77'

Louis Reed

78'

M. Benning← A. Martin

80'

B. Gladwin← J. Williams

83'

J. Wilson

90+4'

J. O'Brien← L. Barry

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwindonPort

Overview

49%Possession51%

13Total Shots13

4Corners2

8Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots13

6On Target4

6Off Target6

1Blocked3

8Inside Box6

5Outside Box7

Passing

49%Possession51%

334Total Passes343

218Accurate Passes224

65%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1