Port Vale 2–1 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Port Vale

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Swindon Town

B. Cover 85'

G. Byers 61'

W. Wright 89'

9/28/2024

League Two · Round 8Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Port Vale43%

×Draw25%

Swindon Town32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port ValeExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.27

Port Vale

1.52

Swindon Town

1.27

Port Vale creates 20% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 32 away

1.66

creates per match

1.44

1.09

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Port Vale

1.66

Swindon Town

1.44

allows per match

Port Vale

1.09

Swindon Town

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw

68%

Port Vale or Swindon Town

75%

Draw or Swindon Town

57%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+

21%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals

78%

Port Vale 2+ goals

45%

Port Vale 3+ goals

20%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

72%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

36%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)

58%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.66 + Swindon Town defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.52

Swindon Town attack 1.44 + Port Vale defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Port Vale scores more

43%

level

25%

Swindon Town scores more

32%

Port Vale at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

T. Sang

Port Vale · D

8.2

Match Events

57'

N. Ofoborh← H. Minturn

59'

Ben Garrity

61'

G. Byers↳ T. Sang

68'

P. Glatzel← D. Butterworth

70'

E. Chislett← A. Hackford

82'

S. McGurk← A. Drinan

82'

J. McGregor← G. Kilkenny

85'

R. Croasdale← L. Tolaj

85'

87'

89'

90'

90+4'

90+5'

90+5'

R. Curtis← J. Stockley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortSwindon

Overview

54%Possession46%

20Total Shots4

12Corners3

15Fouls11

Shots

20Total Shots4

6On Target1

10Off Target2

4Blocked1

17Inside Box2

3Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

392Total Passes358

295Accurate Passes260

75%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0