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Port Vale vs Swindon Town — League Two 2025

Port Vale
Port Valeadvanced
Pens
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
M. Benning 120+15' (pen)
J. Gibbons 120+13' (pen)
B. Garrity 120+11' (pen)
T. Pett 120+9' (pen)
H. Charsley 120+7' (pen)
J. Wilson 120+1' (pen), 8'
M. Egbo 120+14' (pen)
D. Conroy 120+12' (pen)
L. Reed 120+8' (pen)
B. Gladwin 120+4' (pen)
J. Payne 120+2' (pen)
5/19/2022League TwoLeague Two · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsVale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Port Vale43%
×Draw25%
Swindon Town32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.52
Swindon Town
1.27

Port Vale creates 20% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 32 away

creates per match

Port Vale
1.66
Swindon Town
1.44

allows per match

Port Vale
1.09
Swindon Town
1.38

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
68%
Port Vale or Swindon Town
75%
Draw or Swindon Town
57%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
21%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
78%
Port Vale 2+ goals
45%
Port Vale 3+ goals
20%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
72%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
36%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
58%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.66 + Swindon Town defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.52

Swindon Town attack 1.44 + Port Vale defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Port Vale scores more
43%
level
25%
Swindon Town scores more
32%

Port Vale at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
N. SmithPort ValePort Vale · D
8.3

Match Events

8'
J. Wilson↳ K. Harratt
42'
James Wilson
56'
Ellis Iandolo
59'
Tom Pett
60'
H. Charsley← J. Taylor
74'
R. Edmondson← K. Harratt
81'
B. Gladwin← L. Barry
95'
Dion Conroy
105'
J. O'Brien← J. Williams
120+1'
Harry McKirdy
120+1'
J. WilsonPenalty
120+2'
J. PaynePenalty
120+3'
D. WorrallMissed penalty
120+4'
B. GladwinPenalty
120+5'
R. EdmondsonMissed penalty
120+6'
H. McKirdyMissed penalty
120+7'
H. CharsleyPenalty
120+8'
L. ReedPenalty
120+9'
T. PettPenalty
120+10'
J. DavisonMissed penalty
120+11'
B. GarrityPenalty
120+12'
D. ConroyPenalty
120+13'
J. GibbonsPenalty
120+14'
M. EgboPenalty
120+15'
M. BenningPenalty
120+16'
E. IandoloMissed penalty

Possession

46%Port

Shots

18Port

Pass accuracy

46%Port

Statistics

PortSwindon
Overview
46%Possession54%
18Total Shots15
3Corners7
18Fouls10
Shots
18Total Shots15
5On Target1
8Off Target6
5Blocked8
11Inside Box8
7Outside Box7
Passing
46%Possession54%
413Total Passes475
242Accurate Passes326
59%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
18Fouls10
2Yellow Cards3
5Offsides4

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Swindon Town

Port Vale beat Swindon Town 1-0 in League Two on May 19, 2022.

Goals: J. Wilson (8', 120+1' pen), J. Payne (120+2' pen), B. Gladwin (120+4' pen), H. Charsley (120+7' pen), L. Reed (120+8' pen), T. Pett (120+9' pen), B. Garrity (120+11' pen), D. Conroy (120+12' pen), J. Gibbons (120+13' pen), M. Egbo (120+14' pen), M. Benning (120+15' pen).

Swindon Town controlled possession (54%) and registered 15 shots to 18.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.