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Swindon Town vs Port Vale — League Two 2018

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Port Vale
Port Vale
9/11/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 7The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Swindon Town42%
×Draw26%
Port Vale32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.39
Port Vale
1.17

Swindon Town creates 19% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 118 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
1.61
Port Vale
1.16

allows per match

Swindon Town
1.19
Port Vale
1.17

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
68%
Swindon Town or Port Vale
74%
Draw or Port Vale
58%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
20%
Port Vale wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
75%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
40%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
16%
Port Vale 1+ goals
69%
Port Vale 2+ goals
33%
Port Vale 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
57%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.19 · 158 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.61 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

Port Vale attack 1.16 + Swindon Town defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Swindon Town scores more
42%
level
26%
Port Vale scores more
32%

Swindon Town at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Swindon Town vs Port Vale

Port Vale beat Swindon Town 2-1 in League Two on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at The County Ground in Swindon, Wiltshire.