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Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town — League Two 2018

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
Preview
14:00
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
4/10/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 40County Ground
Big match
44%
Swindon Town
model favours
44%25%32%

Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Swindon Town44%
×Draw25%
Fleetwood Town32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.58
Fleetwood Town
1.31

Swindon Town creates 21% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
1.62
Fleetwood Town
1.15

allows per match

Swindon Town
1.48
Fleetwood Town
1.54

finishing

Swindon Town+0.24scores more
Fleetwood Town-0.07on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Fleetwood Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
68%
Swindon Town or Fleetwood Town
75%
Draw or Fleetwood Town
56%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
22%
Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
79%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
47%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
21%
Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
73%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
38%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
58%
Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.48 · 14 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.62 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.58

Fleetwood Town attack 1.15 + Swindon Town defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Swindon Town scores more
44%
level
25%
Fleetwood Town scores more
32%

Swindon Town at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Fleetwood Town win just 19% against the top half (vs 48% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Swindon Town
Balanced
Fleetwood Town
Balanced
53%PossessionBiggest gap48%
71%Pass accuracy68%
12.4Shots12.1
1.44xG1.32
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Swindon TownFleetwood Town

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

3
Swindon Town
2
Draws
1
Fleetwood Town
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 50%
1–11–14–03–12–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
LLWL
Town
WWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Swindon Town face Fleetwood Town (League Two)

League Two returns with Swindon Town hosting Fleetwood Town. Match starts April 10, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Swindon Town host Fleetwood Town at County Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.