Fleetwood Town 0–4 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Fleetwood Town

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Swindon Town

N. Ofoborh 88'

R. Bennett 75' (OG)

M. Freckleton 47'

K. Tshimanga 38' (pen)

4/5/2025

League Two · Round 41Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Fleetwood Town45%

×Draw26%

Swindon Town29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.15

Fleetwood Town

1.49

Swindon Town

1.15

Fleetwood Town creates 30% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.52

creates per match

1.34

0.96

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.52

Swindon Town

1.34

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

0.96

Swindon Town

1.46

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Fleetwood Town-0.35scores less

Swindon Town-0.01on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

71%

Fleetwood Town or Swindon Town

74%

Draw or Swindon Town

55%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

22%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

77%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

44%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

19%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

68%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

32%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

61%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.96 · 12 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.46 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.52 + Swindon Town defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.49

Swindon Town attack 1.34 + Fleetwood Town defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

45%

level

26%

Swindon Town scores more

29%

Fleetwood Town at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

M. Freckleton

Swindon Town · D

8.0

Match Events

36'

Rhys Bennett

38'

K. TshimangaPenalty

44'

Owen Devonport

45'

Kabongo Tshimanga

46'

Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu

46'

Mackenzie Hunt← L. Marsh

47'

M. Freckleton↳ P. Glatzel

64'

K. Moore← O. Devonport

75'

R. BennettOwn goal

76'

D. Mayor← J. Bolton

77'

N. Ofoborh← J. Cotterill

78'

J. Westley← K. Tshimanga

78'

J. Cain← B. Kirkman

79'

F. Potter← M. Helm

79'

G. Morrison← M. Virtue-Thick

88'

N. Ofoborh

90'

S. Hart← T. Sobowale

90'

O. Foye← T. Nichols

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FleetwoodSwindon

Overview

54%Possession46%

10Total Shots6

2Corners2

9Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots6

4On Target3

5Off Target2

1Blocked1

7Inside Box6

3Outside Box0

Passing

54%Possession46%

402Total Passes336

288Accurate Passes228

72%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls15

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3