Fleetwood Town 1–1 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Fleetwood Town

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Swindon Town

R. Graydon 45'

R. Tafazolli 31'

11/15/2025

League Two · Round 16Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Fleetwood Town47%

×Draw26%

Swindon Town27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.10

Fleetwood Town

1.52

Swindon Town

1.10

Fleetwood Town creates 38% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

1.52

creates per match

1.24

0.96

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.52

Swindon Town

1.24

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

0.96

Swindon Town

1.51

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Fleetwood Town-0.35scores less

Swindon Town+0.07on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

73%

Fleetwood Town or Swindon Town

74%

Draw or Swindon Town

53%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

24%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

78%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

45%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

20%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

67%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

30%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

63%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.96 · 12 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.51 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.52 + Swindon Town defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

Swindon Town attack 1.24 + Fleetwood Town defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

47%

level

26%

Swindon Town scores more

27%

Fleetwood Town at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

R. Tafazolli

Swindon Town · D

8.2

Match Events

28'

Gavin Kilkenny

31'

R. Tafazolli↳ D. Oldaker

45'

R. Graydon↳ M. Virtue-Thick

48'

Ryan Tafazolli

66'

W. Davies← C. Evans

67'

P. Ehibhatiomhan← D. Oldaker

67'

B. Bodin← J. McGregor

78'

G. Morrison← M. Virtue-Thick

82'

R. Coughlan← E. Ennis

83'

Tom Nichols

86'

H. Gray← W. Wright

87'

J. Ball← T. Nichols

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FleetwoodSwindon

Overview

42%Possession58%

12Total Shots15

0.97Expected Goals (xG)1.43

9Corners6

11Fouls18

Shots

12Total Shots15

2On Target6

3Off Target4

7Blocked5

11Inside Box9

1Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

282Total Passes398

165Accurate Passes300

59%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls18

0Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1

League Two: Fleetwood Town 1–1 Swindon Town

Fleetwood Town and Swindon Town drew 1-1 in League Two on November 15, 2025.

Goals: R. Tafazolli (31'), R. Graydon (45').

Swindon Town controlled possession (58%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at Highbury Stadium in Fleetwood.

Fleetwood Town vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Fleetwood Town 1–1 Swindon Town