Swindon Town 1–1 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Swindon Town

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fleetwood Town

B. Bodin 45'

M. Helm 57'

3/28/2026

League Two · Round 40County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Swindon Town44%

×Draw25%

Fleetwood Town32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swindon TownExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.31

Swindon Town

1.58

Fleetwood Town

1.31

Swindon Town creates 21% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

1.62

creates per match

1.15

1.48

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Swindon Town

1.62

Fleetwood Town

1.15

allows per match

Swindon Town

1.48

Fleetwood Town

1.54

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Swindon Town+0.24scores more

Fleetwood Town-0.07on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw

68%

Swindon Town or Fleetwood Town

75%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

56%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+

22%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals

79%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

47%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

21%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

73%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

38%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

58%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.48 · 14 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.62 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.58

Fleetwood Town attack 1.15 + Swindon Town defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Swindon Town scores more

44%

level

25%

Fleetwood Town scores more

32%

Swindon Town at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

C. Ripley

Swindon Town · G

8.3

Match Events

18'

25'

28'

41'

45'

57'

M. Helm↳ C. Evans

61'

J. Batty← B. Kirkman

61'

F. Holman← B. Bodin

69'

Mitchell Clark

76'

A. Borland← G. Kilkenny

76'

T. Nichols← O. Palmer

77'

J. Ball← R. Tafazolli

78'

J. Powell← M. Clark

82'

G. Morrison← M. Virtue-Thick

86'

Jamie Knight-Lebel

86'

Will Davies

88'

J. Norwood← C. Evans

88'

D. E. Osong← W. Davies

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwindonFleetwood

Overview

55%Possession45%

9Total Shots15

1.26Expected Goals (xG)0.59

6Corners9

8Fouls17

Shots

9Total Shots15

3On Target4

5Off Target4

1Blocked7

6Inside Box9

3Outside Box6

Passing

55%Possession45%

370Total Passes288

255Accurate Passes176

69%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls17

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1