Swindon Town 0–1 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Swindon Town

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fleetwood Town

P. Madden 29'

12/12/2020

League One · Round 17The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Swindon Town36%

×Draw26%

Fleetwood Town38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swindon TownExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.32

Swindon Town

1.27

Fleetwood Town

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 135 away

1.10

creates per match

1.16

1.48

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Swindon Town

1.10

Fleetwood Town

1.16

allows per match

Swindon Town

1.48

Fleetwood Town

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw

62%

Swindon Town or Fleetwood Town

74%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

64%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+

15%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals

72%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

36%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

14%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

73%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

38%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

48%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.10 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Fleetwood Town attack 1.16 + Swindon Town defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Swindon Town scores more

36%

level

26%

Fleetwood Town scores more

38%

Fleetwood Town at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

D. Andrew

Fleetwood Town · D

7.5

Match Events

29'

35'

57'

61'

69'

71'

74'

75'

75'

J. Rossiter← C. Camps

82'

Callumm Connolly

84'

M. Duffy← J. Morris

90'

Mark Duffy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwindonFleetwood

Overview

60%Possession40%

9Total Shots5

5Corners6

14Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots5

2On Target1

2Off Target4

5Blocked0

6Inside Box3

3Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

482Total Passes312

342Accurate Passes181

71%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0