Sweden 8–0 Luxembourg: Result & Stats | League #32

Sweden

FT

8 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Luxembourg

O. Toivonen 76'

M. Berg 71', 54', 37', 18'

A. Granqvist 67' (pen), 10' (pen)

M. Lustig 60'

10/7/2017

League #32 · 1st Round - 9Friends Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sweden82%

×Draw11%

Luxembourg7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwedenExpected goals in this matchLuxembourg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.25

0.88

Sweden

3.25

Luxembourg

0.88

Sweden creates 269% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

2.50

creates per match

1.00

0.75

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Sweden

2.50

Luxembourg

1.00

allows per match

Sweden

0.75

Luxembourg

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sweden+0.00on par

Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sweden ↓

Luxembourg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Sweden or draw

93%

Sweden or Luxembourg

89%

Draw or Luxembourg

18%

Winning margin

Sweden wins by 2+

64%

Luxembourg wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Sweden 1+ goals

96%

Sweden 2+ goals

83%

Sweden 3+ goals

61%

Luxembourg 1+ goals

59%

Luxembourg 2+ goals

22%

Luxembourg 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sweden (draw refunded)

92%

Luxembourg (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sweden at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Luxembourg away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sweden attack 2.50 + Luxembourg defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.25

Luxembourg attack 1.00 + Sweden defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Sweden scores more

82%

level

11%

Luxembourg scores more

7%

Sweden at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Sweden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Berg

Sweden · F

10.0

Match Events

10'

A. GranqvistPenalty

18'

M. Berg↳ O. Toivonen

37'

M. Berg

46'

G. Rodrigues← O. Thill

46'

D. Turpel← V. Thill

54'

M. Berg↳ L. Augustinsson

59'

Daniel da Mota

60'

M. Lustig↳ S. Larsson

62'

E. Krafth← M. Lustig

67'

A. GranqvistPenalty

71'

M. Berg↳ L. Augustinsson

72'

A. Skenderovic← C. Martins

74'

I. Thelin← M. Berg

76'

O. Toivonen↳ E. Krafth

81'

F. Helander← A. Granqvist

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwedenLuxembourg

Overview

59%Possession41%

22Total Shots5

5Corners3

12Fouls9

Shots

22Total Shots5

14On Target2

4Off Target3

4Blocked0

16Inside Box3

6Outside Box2

Passing

59%Possession41%

519Total Passes348

440Accurate Passes269

85%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2