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Luxembourg vs Sweden — League #32 2026

Luxembourg
Luxembourg
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sweden
Sweden
M. Lustig 58'
10/7/2016League #32League #32 · 1st Round - 2Stade Josy Barthel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Luxembourg21%
×Draw26%
Sweden52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luxembourg
0.84
Sweden
1.48

Sweden creates 76% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Luxembourg
0.25
Sweden
1.22

allows per match

Luxembourg
1.75
Sweden
1.44

finishing

Luxembourg+0.00on par
Sweden+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luxembourg ↓

Sweden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Luxembourg or draw
48%
Luxembourg or Sweden
74%
Draw or Sweden
79%

Winning margin

Luxembourg wins by 2+
7%
Sweden wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Luxembourg 1+ goals
57%
Luxembourg 2+ goals
21%
Luxembourg 3+ goals
5%
Sweden 1+ goals
77%
Sweden 2+ goals
43%
Sweden 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Luxembourg (draw refunded)
29%
Sweden (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luxembourg at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Sweden away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luxembourg attack 0.25 + Sweden defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 0.84

Sweden attack 1.22 + Luxembourg defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Luxembourg scores more
21%
level
26%
Sweden scores more
52%

Sweden at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sweden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
Martin Olsson
32'
Chris Philipps
48'
Victor Lindelöf
56'
Dirk Carlson
58'
M. Lustig↳ M. Berg
66'
Kevin Malget
66'
D. Turpel← V. Thill
66'
D. Alves da Mota← M. Deville
71'
O. Toivonen← J. Guidetti
76'
Ola Toivonen
80'
A. Fransson← A. Ekdal
82'
Kevin Malget
82'
Daniel da Mota
82'
Kevin Malget
82'
Jimmy Durmaz
89'
C. Nyman← J. Durmaz

Possession

45%Luxembourg

Shots

4Luxembourg

Statistics

LuxembourgSweden
Overview
45%Possession55%
4Total Shots21
3Corners10
18Fouls14
Shots
4Total Shots21
1On Target13
3Off Target8
Passing
45%Possession55%
Goalkeeping
12Saves1
Discipline
18Fouls14
4Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Luxembourg vs Sweden

Sweden beat Luxembourg 1-0 in League #32 on October 7, 2016.

Goals: M. Lustig (58').

Sweden controlled possession (55%) and registered 21 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stade Josy Barthel in Luxembourg.