Luxembourg 1–0 Sweden: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Luxembourg

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sweden

Seid Korać 23'

3/22/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Stade de Luxembourg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Luxembourg39%

×Draw27%

Sweden34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LuxembourgExpected goals in this matchSweden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.17

Luxembourg

1.29

Sweden

1.17

Luxembourg creates 10% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 10 away

0.78

creates per match

1.00

1.33

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Luxembourg

0.78

Sweden

1.00

allows per match

Luxembourg

1.33

Sweden

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luxembourg+0.00on par

Sweden+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luxembourg ↓

Sweden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Luxembourg or draw

66%

Luxembourg or Sweden

73%

Draw or Sweden

61%

Winning margin

Luxembourg wins by 2+

18%

Sweden wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Luxembourg 1+ goals

72%

Luxembourg 2+ goals

37%

Luxembourg 3+ goals

14%

Sweden 1+ goals

69%

Sweden 2+ goals

33%

Sweden 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Luxembourg (draw refunded)

54%

Sweden (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luxembourg at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Sweden away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luxembourg attack 0.78 + Sweden defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sweden attack 1.00 + Luxembourg defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Luxembourg scores more

39%

level

27%

Sweden scores more

34%

Luxembourg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

Seid Korać

Luxembourg · D

8.3

Match Events

23'

Seid Korać↳ Danel Sinani

31'

Laurent Jans

43'

Jesper Karlström

46'

Emil Holm← Niclas Eliasson

46'

Ken Sema← Samuel Dahl

46'

Yasin Ayari← Besfort Zeneli

60'

Marvin Martins← Laurent Jans

60'

Alessio Curci← Brian Madjo

61'

Sebastian Nanasi← Alexander Isak

61'

Gustaf Nilsson← Anthony Elanga

73'

Tomas de Sousa Moreira← Mathias Olesen

74'

Dirk Carlson

80'

Alessio Curci

82'

Benjamin Nygren← Jesper Karlström

90'

Eric Veiga← Florian Bohnert

90'

Vincent Thill← Gerson Rodrigues

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LuxembourgSweden

Overview

29%Possession71%

13Total Shots14

3Corners8

14Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots14

7On Target2

3Off Target7

3Blocked5

8Inside Box9

5Outside Box5

Passing

29%Possession71%

266Total Passes651

189Accurate Passes574

71%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides5