Swansea 1–4 Ipswich: Result & Stats | Championship

Swansea

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Ipswich

G. Franco 50'

C. Burgess 81' (OG), 55' (OG)

I. Azon 76'

J. Clarke 36'

11/8/2025

Championship · Round 15Swansea.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Swansea32%

×Draw27%

Ipswich40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwanseaExpected goals in this matchIpswich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.31

Swansea

1.14

Ipswich

1.31

Ipswich creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

1.14

creates per match

1.54

1.07

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Swansea

1.14

Ipswich

1.54

allows per match

Swansea

1.07

Ipswich

1.14

+0.06on par

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Swansea+0.06on par

Ipswich+0.18scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Ipswich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Swansea or draw

60%

Swansea or Ipswich

73%

Draw or Ipswich

68%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+

13%

Ipswich wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals

68%

Swansea 2+ goals

32%

Swansea 3+ goals

11%

Ipswich 1+ goals

73%

Ipswich 2+ goals

38%

Ipswich 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)

44%

Ipswich (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.14 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.14 + Ipswich defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.14

Ipswich attack 1.54 + Swansea defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Swansea scores more

32%

level

27%

Ipswich scores more

40%

Ipswich at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

G. Franco

Swansea · M

7.9

Match Events

24'

26'

30'

33'

34'

36'

46'

46'

Ronald← I. Samuels-Smith

50'

G. Franco↳ J. Tymon

55'

C. BurgessOwn goal

65'

J. Eom← Z. Inoussa

70'

Jack Taylor

71'

Ben Cabango

71'

J. Philogene← K. McAteer

71'

I. Azon← G. Hirst

72'

J. Cajuste← J. Taylor

76'

I. Azon

80'

Azor Matusiwa

80'

B. Manuel Hedilazio← J. Key

80'

A. Idah← G. Franco

81'

C. BurgessOwn goal

84'

B. Johnson← J. Clarke

84'

C. Akpom← M. Nunez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwanseaIpswich

Overview

55%Possession45%

9Total Shots11

0.43Expected Goals (xG)1.37

4Corners5

13Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots11

4On Target4

4Off Target4

1Blocked3

4Inside Box7

5Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

445Total Passes357

367Accurate Passes287

82%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

-0.19Goals Prevented-0.19

Discipline

13Fouls14

5Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1

Championship: Swansea 1–4 Ipswich

Ipswich beat Swansea 4-1 in Championship on November 8, 2025.

Goals: J. Clarke (36'), G. Franco (50'), C. Burgess (55' o.g., 81' o.g.), I. Azon (76').

Swansea controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Swansea.com Stadium in Swansea.

Swansea vs Ipswich — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Swansea 1–4 Ipswich