Ipswich 3–2 Swansea: Result & Stats | Championship

Ipswich

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Swansea

G. Hirst 53' (pen)

C. Chaplin 22'

J. Taylor 17'

J. Lowe 90+5'

J. Fulton 7'

11/11/2023

Championship · Round 16Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Ipswich59%

×Draw23%

Swansea18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.91

Ipswich

1.83

Swansea

0.91

Ipswich creates 101% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 19 away

1.98

creates per match

1.04

0.78

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Ipswich

1.98

Swansea

1.04

allows per match

Ipswich

0.78

Swansea

1.69

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Ipswich+0.05on par

Swansea-0.15scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

82%

Ipswich or Swansea

77%

Draw or Swansea

41%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

34%

Swansea wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

84%

Ipswich 2+ goals

54%

Ipswich 3+ goals

28%

Swansea 1+ goals

60%

Swansea 2+ goals

23%

Swansea 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

76%

Swansea (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.78 · 29 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.69 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.98 + Swansea defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.83

Swansea attack 1.04 + Ipswich defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ipswich scores more

59%

level

23%

Swansea scores more

18%

Ipswich at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

L. Davis

Ipswich · D

8.3

Match Events

7'

J. Fulton↳ J. Lowe

17'

J. Taylor↳ C. Chaplin

22'

C. Chaplin↳ G. Hirst

26'

Conor Chaplin

26'

Liam Cullen

53'

G. HirstPenalty

63'

M. Harness← N. Broadhead

64'

W. Burns← O. Hutchinson

69'

Liam Cullen

69'

Liam Cullen

71'

L. Walsh← J. Yates

71'

O. Cooper← J. Paterson

78'

D. Scarlett← C. Chaplin

78'

81'

86'

89'

89'

K. Naughton← H. Ashby

90+5'

J. Lowe↳ J. Tymon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichSwansea

Overview

38%Possession62%

22Total Shots7

3.65Expected Goals (xG)1.44

6Corners2

15Fouls9

Shots

22Total Shots7

9On Target4

9Off Target0

4Blocked3

15Inside Box5

7Outside Box2

Passing

38%Possession62%

340Total Passes585

274Accurate Passes499

81%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls9

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

4Offsides1

Championship: Ipswich 3–2 Swansea

Ipswich beat Swansea 3-2 in Championship on November 11, 2023.

Goals: J. Fulton (7'), J. Taylor (17'), C. Chaplin (22'), G. Hirst (53' pen), J. Lowe (90+5').

Swansea controlled possession (62%) and registered 7 shots to 22.

The match was played at Portman Road in Ipswich, Suffolk.

Ipswich vs Swansea — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Ipswich 3–2 Swansea