Ipswich 0–1 Swansea: Result & Stats | Championship

Ipswich

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Swansea

W. Routledge 57'

4/22/2019

Championship · Round 44Portman Road Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Ipswich57%

×Draw23%

Swansea20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.95

Ipswich

1.80

Swansea

0.95

Ipswich creates 89% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 22 away

1.99

creates per match

1.15

0.76

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Ipswich

1.99

Swansea

1.15

allows per match

Ipswich

0.76

Swansea

1.61

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Ipswich+0.13scores more

Swansea-0.15scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

80%

Ipswich or Swansea

77%

Draw or Swansea

43%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

33%

Swansea wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

83%

Ipswich 2+ goals

54%

Ipswich 3+ goals

27%

Swansea 1+ goals

61%

Swansea 2+ goals

25%

Swansea 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

74%

Swansea (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.76 · 33 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.61 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.99 + Swansea defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.80

Swansea attack 1.15 + Ipswich defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ipswich scores more

57%

level

23%

Swansea scores more

20%

Ipswich at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

J. Fulton

Swansea · M

8.0

Match Events

16'

20'

29'

57'

61'

66'

C. Quaner← A. Dozzell

66'

K. Jackson← W. Keane

70'

N. Dyer← W. Routledge

79'

T. Bishop← T. Chalobah

84'

L. Fer← J. Fulton

90'

Nathan Dyer

90+2'

J. Rodon← D. James

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichSwansea

Overview

42%Possession58%

13Total Shots17

4Corners4

15Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots17

2On Target5

6Off Target10

5Blocked2

7Inside Box12

6Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

403Total Passes547

295Accurate Passes457

73%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls7

2Yellow Cards3

4Offsides3