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Swansea vs Charlton — Championship 2018

Swansea
Swansea
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Charlton
Charlton
L. Walta 88'
A. Idah 82', 74'
M. Leaburn 79'
5/2/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 46Swansea.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Swansea45%
×Draw27%
Charlton28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swansea
1.42
Charlton
1.06

Swansea creates 34% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 21 away

creates per match

Swansea
1.28
Charlton
0.89

allows per match

Swansea
1.23
Charlton
1.55

finishing

Swansea+0.10scores more
Charlton-0.03on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Charlton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Swansea or draw
72%
Swansea or Charlton
73%
Draw or Charlton
55%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+
22%
Charlton wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals
76%
Swansea 2+ goals
41%
Swansea 3+ goals
17%
Charlton 1+ goals
65%
Charlton 2+ goals
29%
Charlton 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)
62%
Charlton (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.55 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.28 + Charlton defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.42

Charlton attack 0.89 + Swansea defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Swansea scores more
45%
level
27%
Charlton scores more
28%

Swansea at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
A. IdahSwanseaSwansea · F
8.9

Match Events

36'
L. Walta← M. Widell
46'
J. Fulton← M. Stamenic
60'
M. Leaburn← R. Burke
60'
J. Rankin-Costello← J. Fevrier
61'
S. Carey← C. Coady
65'
A. Idah← L. Cullen
74'
A. Idah↳ J. Key
75'
L. Berry← H. Knibbs
78'
J. Ward← J. Key
78'
T. Woodward← Z. Vipotnik
78'
C. Kelman← L. Dykes
79'
M. Leaburn↳ S. Carey
82'
A. Idah↳ T. Woodward
88'
L. Walta

Possession

72%Swansea

Shots

20Swansea

Pass accuracy

55%Swansea

Statistics

SwanseaCharlton
Overview
72%Possession28%
20Total Shots12
1.16Expected Goals (xG)0.96
10Corners4
5Fouls14
Shots
20Total Shots12
8On Target3
6Off Target4
6Blocked5
12Inside Box9
8Outside Box3
Passing
72%Possession28%
619Total Passes239
541Accurate Passes169
87%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
-0.98Goals Prevented-0.98
Discipline
5Fouls14
4Offsides1

Championship: Swansea 3–1 Charlton

Swansea beat Charlton 3-1 in Championship on May 2, 2026.

Goals: A. Idah (74', 82'), M. Leaburn (79'), L. Walta (88').

Swansea controlled possession (72%) and registered 20 shots to 12.

The match was played at Swansea.com Stadium in Swansea.