Swansea 1–0 Charlton: Result & Stats | Championship

Swansea

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Charlton

Y. Dhanda 14'

1/2/2020

Championship · Round 26Liberty Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Swansea46%

×Draw27%

Charlton28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwanseaExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.05

Swansea

1.43

Charlton

1.05

Swansea creates 36% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 21 away

1.31

creates per match

0.89

1.21

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Swansea

1.31

Charlton

0.89

allows per match

Swansea

1.21

Charlton

1.55

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Swansea+0.05on par

Charlton-0.03on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Swansea or draw

72%

Swansea or Charlton

73%

Draw or Charlton

54%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+

22%

Charlton wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals

76%

Swansea 2+ goals

42%

Swansea 3+ goals

17%

Charlton 1+ goals

65%

Charlton 2+ goals

28%

Charlton 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)

62%

Charlton (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.21 · 55 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.55 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.31 + Charlton defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Charlton attack 0.89 + Swansea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Swansea scores more

46%

level

27%

Charlton scores more

28%

Swansea at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

F. Woodman

Swansea · G

8.1

Match Events

2'

Kyle Naughton

14'

Y. Dhanda↳ W. Routledge

22'

Albie Morgan

45'

Jason Pearce

46'

A. Doughty← L. Taylor

50'

Darren Pratley

58'

B. Wilmot← M. van der Hoorn

65'

B. Celina← Y. Dhanda

71'

J. Vennings← A. Morgan

86'

J. Fulton← Borja Bastón

87'

N. Sarr← B. Purrington

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwanseaCharlton

Overview

54%Possession46%

14Total Shots7

7Corners5

8Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots7

3On Target5

8Off Target2

3Blocked0

9Inside Box6

5Outside Box1

Passing

54%Possession46%

505Total Passes411

395Accurate Passes310

78%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls9

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3