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Charlton vs Swansea — Championship 2018

Charlton
Charlton
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Swansea
Swansea
C. Kelman 46'
A. Idah 64'
11/1/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 13The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Charlton39%
×Draw27%
Swansea34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.33
Swansea
1.21

Charlton creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 49 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.12
Swansea
1.10

allows per match

Charlton
1.32
Swansea
1.55

finishing

Charlton-0.12scores less
Swansea-0.02on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Swansea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
66%
Charlton or Swansea
73%
Draw or Swansea
61%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
18%
Swansea wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
74%
Charlton 2+ goals
38%
Charlton 3+ goals
15%
Swansea 1+ goals
70%
Swansea 2+ goals
34%
Swansea 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
54%
Swansea (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.55 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.12 + Swansea defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.33

Swansea attack 1.10 + Charlton defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Charlton scores more
39%
level
27%
Swansea scores more
34%

Charlton at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
K. CaseySwanseaSwansea · D
7.9

Match Events

44'
K. Ramsay← A. Bell
46'
M. Leaburn← R. Burke
46'
C. Kelman↳ C. Coventry
64'
A. Idah↳ K. Casey
65'
M. Widell← J. Eom
65'
Z. Inoussa← Ronald
68'
O. Hernandez← C. Kelman
83'
T. Olaofe← T. Campbell
83'
H. Knibbs← G. Docherty
87'
J. Fulton← G. Franco

Possession

41%Charlton

Shots

11Charlton

Pass accuracy

45%Charlton

Statistics

CharltonSwansea
Overview
41%Possession59%
11Total Shots11
0.93Expected Goals (xG)0.71
4Corners7
10Fouls8
Shots
11Total Shots11
4On Target2
3Off Target9
4Blocked0
9Inside Box4
2Outside Box7
Passing
41%Possession59%
327Total Passes453
202Accurate Passes340
62%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
-0.69Goals Prevented-0.69
Discipline
10Fouls8
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Charlton vs Swansea

Charlton and Swansea drew 1-1 in Championship on November 1, 2025.

Goals: C. Kelman (46'), A. Idah (64').

Swansea controlled possession (59%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at The Valley in London.