Swansea 1–0 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Swansea

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bristol City

Z. Vipotnik 26'

2/21/2026

Championship · Round 33Swansea.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 55+ matches

Swansea41%

×Draw27%

Bristol City32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwanseaExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.13

Swansea

1.33

Bristol City

1.13

Swansea creates 18% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 58 away

1.31

creates per match

1.05

1.21

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Swansea

1.31

Bristol City

1.05

allows per match

Swansea

1.21

Bristol City

1.35

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Swansea+0.05on par

Bristol City-0.08on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Swansea or draw

68%

Swansea or Bristol City

73%

Draw or Bristol City

59%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+

19%

Bristol City wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals

74%

Swansea 2+ goals

38%

Swansea 3+ goals

15%

Bristol City 1+ goals

68%

Bristol City 2+ goals

31%

Bristol City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)

57%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.21 · 55 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.31 + Bristol City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bristol City attack 1.05 + Swansea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Swansea scores more

41%

level

27%

Bristol City scores more

32%

Swansea at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

C. Burgess

Swansea · D

7.5

Match Events

26'

Z. Vipotnik

44'

Melker Widell

45+1'

George Earthy

53'

Ronald← Gustavo Nunes

56'

56'

65'

66'

70'

M. Yalcouye← M. Widell

72'

Sinclair Armstrong

79'

L. Cullen← Z. Vipotnik

79'

L. Walta← G. Franco

79'

J. Ward← E. Galbraith

80'

S. Bell← S. Armstrong

87'

Jay Fulton

90+2'

Scott Twine

90'

Max Bird

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwanseaBristol

Overview

44%Possession56%

8Total Shots12

0.62Expected Goals (xG)0.75

3Corners5

14Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots12

3On Target2

2Off Target7

3Blocked3

6Inside Box8

2Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

348Total Passes455

223Accurate Passes337

64%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

0.05Goals Prevented0.05

Discipline

14Fouls11

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides4

Match Recap: Swansea vs Bristol City

Swansea beat Bristol City 1-0 in Championship on February 21, 2026.

Goals: Z. Vipotnik (26').

Bristol City controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Swansea.com Stadium in Swansea.

Swansea vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Swansea vs Bristol City