Bristol City 0–1 Swansea: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Swansea

J. Tymon 55'

2/9/2025

Championship · Round 31Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Bristol City37%

×Draw28%

Swansea35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.15

Bristol City

1.21

Swansea

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 14 away

1.03

creates per match

0.95

1.34

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Bristol City

1.03

Swansea

0.95

allows per match

Bristol City

1.34

Swansea

1.39

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Bristol City-0.14scores less

Swansea-0.16scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

65%

Bristol City or Swansea

72%

Draw or Swansea

63%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

16%

Swansea wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

70%

Bristol City 2+ goals

34%

Bristol City 3+ goals

12%

Swansea 1+ goals

68%

Swansea 2+ goals

32%

Swansea 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

52%

Swansea (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.34 · 27 matches

Swansea away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.39 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.03 + Swansea defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Swansea attack 0.95 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bristol City scores more

37%

level

28%

Swansea scores more

35%

Bristol City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

M. Bird

Bristol City · M

8.0

Match Events

55'

J. Tymon

62'

G. Earthy← A. Mehmeti

62'

S. Armstrong← N. Wells

70'

F. Bianchini← Ž. Vipotnik

73'

S. Bell← L. McNally

73'

J. Key← K. Naughton

84'

O. Cooper← L. Cullen

84'

J. Fulton← Eom Ji-Sung

87'

Y. Hirakawa← M. Sykes

87'

H. Cornick← S. Twine

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolSwansea

Overview

55%Possession45%

19Total Shots9

1.04Expected Goals (xG)1.75

11Corners3

9Fouls8

Shots

19Total Shots9

3On Target5

7Off Target2

9Blocked2

16Inside Box8

3Outside Box1

Passing

55%Possession45%

473Total Passes402

339Accurate Passes286

72%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

0.96Goals Prevented0.96

Discipline

9Fouls8

1Offsides1