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Bristol City vs Swansea — Championship 2025

Bristol City
Bristol City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Swansea
Swansea
R. Dickie 73'
3/10/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 37Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Bristol City39%
×Draw28%
Swansea33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol City
1.23
Swansea
1.10

Bristol City creates 12% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bristol City
1.03
Swansea
0.88

allows per match

Bristol City
1.33
Swansea
1.42

finishing

Bristol City-0.11scores less
Swansea-0.11scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Swansea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw
67%
Bristol City or Swansea
72%
Draw or Swansea
61%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+
17%
Swansea wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals
71%
Bristol City 2+ goals
35%
Bristol City 3+ goals
13%
Swansea 1+ goals
67%
Swansea 2+ goals
30%
Swansea 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)
54%
Swansea (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.33 · 26 matches

Swansea away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.42 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.03 + Swansea defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Swansea attack 0.88 + Bristol City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bristol City scores more
39%
level
28%
Swansea scores more
33%

Bristol City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
R. DickieBristol CityBristol City · D
7.9

Match Events

56'
M. Sykes← H. Cornick
60'
H. Roberts← C. Pring
63'
Josh Tymon
68'
J. Lowe← L. Cullen
71'
Mark Sykes
73'
R. Dickie↳ J. Williams
78'
J. Key← K. Naughton
78'
O. Cooper← J. Paterson
81'
A. King← T. Gardner-Hickman
82'
N. Wells← T. Conway
82'
J. Yates← Ronald
82'
J. Fulton← J. Allen
88'
Nahki Wells

Possession

27%Bristol

Shots

5Bristol

Pass accuracy

44%Bristol

Statistics

BristolSwansea
Overview
27%Possession73%
5Total Shots8
0.50Expected Goals (xG)0.62
3Corners6
14Fouls4
Shots
5Total Shots8
2On Target0
3Off Target7
0Blocked1
5Inside Box6
0Outside Box2
Passing
27%Possession73%
223Total Passes623
154Accurate Passes547
69%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls4
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Bristol City vs Swansea

Bristol City beat Swansea 1-0 in Championship on March 10, 2024.

Goals: R. Dickie (73').

Swansea controlled possession (73%) and registered 8 shots to 5.

The match was played at Ashton Gate Stadium in Bristol.