Swansea 1–2 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Swansea

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Bristol City

L. Cullen 10'

S. Bell 59'

M. Sykes 48'

9/2/2023

Championship · Round 5Swansea.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

Swansea40%

×Draw27%

Bristol City33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwanseaExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.16

Swansea

1.32

Bristol City

1.16

Swansea creates 14% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 62 away

1.30

creates per match

1.10

1.21

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Swansea

1.30

Bristol City

1.10

allows per match

Swansea

1.21

Bristol City

1.34

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Swansea+0.03on par

Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Swansea or draw

67%

Swansea or Bristol City

73%

Draw or Bristol City

60%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+

18%

Bristol City wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals

73%

Swansea 2+ goals

38%

Swansea 3+ goals

15%

Bristol City 1+ goals

69%

Bristol City 2+ goals

32%

Bristol City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)

55%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.21 · 58 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.30 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.32

Bristol City attack 1.10 + Swansea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Swansea scores more

40%

level

27%

Bristol City scores more

33%

Swansea at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

M. Sykes

Bristol City · F

8.2

Match Events

10'

L. Cullen↳ C. Patino

45+2'

Kyle Naughton

45+3'

Kal Naismith

46'

J. Ginnelly← H. Ashby

48'

M. Sykes↳ J. Williams

57'

Josh Ginnelly

59'

J. Paterson← L. Cullen

59'

S. Bell↳ M. Sykes

60'

J. Allen← C. Patino

65'

H. Darling← K. Naughton

65'

M. Kukharevych← J. Yates

69'

G. Tanner← T. Gardner-Hickman

78'

84'

86'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwanseaBristol

Overview

61%Possession39%

12Total Shots16

1.44Expected Goals (xG)2.30

4Corners8

13Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots16

4On Target4

4Off Target5

4Blocked7

7Inside Box13

5Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

549Total Passes347

452Accurate Passes251

82%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls17

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides4