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Swansea vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Swansea
Swansea
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bristol City
Bristol City
O. Ntcham 77'
L. Cullen 34'
3/19/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 38Swansea.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

Swansea40%
×Draw27%
Bristol City33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swansea
1.32
Bristol City
1.16

Swansea creates 14% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 62 away

creates per match

Swansea
1.30
Bristol City
1.10

allows per match

Swansea
1.21
Bristol City
1.34

finishing

Swansea+0.03on par
Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Swansea or draw
67%
Swansea or Bristol City
73%
Draw or Bristol City
60%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+
18%
Bristol City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals
73%
Swansea 2+ goals
38%
Swansea 3+ goals
15%
Bristol City 1+ goals
69%
Bristol City 2+ goals
32%
Bristol City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)
55%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.21 · 58 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.30 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.32

Bristol City attack 1.10 + Swansea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Swansea scores more
40%
level
27%
Bristol City scores more
33%

Swansea at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
O. NtchamSwanseaSwansea · M
8.3

Match Events

34'
L. Cullen↳ O. Ntcham
46'
A. Weimann← G. Tanner
62'
J. Paterson← L. Cullen
62'
A. Mehmeti← H. Cornick
68'
N. Wells← S. Bell
72'
M. Whittaker← L. Cundle
72'
O. Cooper← L. Walsh
74'
Nahki Wells
77'
O. Ntcham
80'
K. Wilson← O. Taylor-Clarke
82'
Joël Piroe
82'
Ryan Manning
82'
Mark Sykes
90+2'
M. Sorinola← O. Ntcham

Possession

58%Swansea

Shots

18Swansea

Pass accuracy

52%Swansea

Statistics

SwanseaBristol
Overview
58%Possession42%
18Total Shots6
3Corners7
14Fouls6
Shots
18Total Shots6
5On Target3
6Off Target1
7Blocked2
15Inside Box3
3Outside Box3
Passing
58%Possession42%
580Total Passes416
500Accurate Passes326
86%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls6
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Swansea vs Bristol City

Swansea beat Bristol City 2-0 in Championship on March 19, 2023.

Goals: L. Cullen (34'), O. Ntcham (77').

Swansea controlled possession (58%) and registered 18 shots to 6.

The match was played at Swansea.com Stadium in Swansea.