Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Swansea vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Swansea
Swansea
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Bristol City
Bristol City
A. Ayew 55' (pen)
A. Semenyo 90+7'
K. Palmer 80'
N. Wells 66'
2/27/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 33Liberty Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 60+ matches

Swansea40%
×Draw27%
Bristol City33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swansea
1.31
Bristol City
1.15

Swansea creates 14% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 62 away

creates per match

Swansea
1.28
Bristol City
1.10

allows per match

Swansea
1.20
Bristol City
1.34

finishing

Swansea+0.02on par
Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Swansea or draw
67%
Swansea or Bristol City
73%
Draw or Bristol City
60%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+
18%
Bristol City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals
73%
Swansea 2+ goals
38%
Swansea 3+ goals
14%
Bristol City 1+ goals
68%
Bristol City 2+ goals
32%
Bristol City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)
55%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.20 · 60 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.28 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bristol City attack 1.10 + Swansea defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Swansea scores more
40%
level
27%
Bristol City scores more
33%

Swansea at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
A. AyewSwanseaSwansea · F
8.0

Match Events

25'
Ryley Towler
45+1'
S. Sessegnon← R. Towler
55'
A. AyewPenalty
61'
Jake Bidwell
66'
N. Wells↳ Z. Vyner
78'
J. Fulton← Y. Dhanda
80'
P. Arriola← C. Hourihane
80'
K. Palmer
82'
M. Whittaker← J. Latibeaudiere
88'
A. Semenyo← K. Palmer
90'
Antoine Semenyo
90+5'
H. Massengo← Á. Nagy
90+7'
A. Semenyo

Possession

69%Swansea

Shots

21Swansea

Pass accuracy

56%Swansea

Statistics

SwanseaBristol
Overview
69%Possession31%
21Total Shots9
8Corners3
10Fouls12
Shots
21Total Shots9
9On Target4
9Off Target4
3Blocked1
14Inside Box4
7Outside Box5
Passing
69%Possession31%
541Total Passes242
460Accurate Passes161
85%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
10Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides2

Championship: Swansea 1–3 Bristol City

Bristol City beat Swansea 3-1 in Championship on February 27, 2021.

Goals: A. Ayew (55' pen), N. Wells (66'), K. Palmer (80'), A. Semenyo (90+7').

Swansea controlled possession (69%) and registered 21 shots to 9.

The match was played at Liberty Stadium in Swansea.