Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Swansea vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Swansea
Swansea
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bristol City
Bristol City
C. Roberts 45+2'
7/18/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 45Liberty Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 61+ matches

Swansea40%
×Draw27%
Bristol City33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swansea
1.31
Bristol City
1.16

Swansea creates 13% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 62 away

creates per match

Swansea
1.27
Bristol City
1.10

allows per match

Swansea
1.21
Bristol City
1.34

finishing

Swansea+0.04on par
Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Swansea or draw
67%
Swansea or Bristol City
73%
Draw or Bristol City
60%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+
18%
Bristol City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals
73%
Swansea 2+ goals
38%
Swansea 3+ goals
14%
Bristol City 1+ goals
69%
Bristol City 2+ goals
32%
Bristol City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)
55%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 61 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.27 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bristol City attack 1.10 + Swansea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Swansea scores more
40%
level
27%
Bristol City scores more
33%

Swansea at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
C. RobertsSwanseaSwansea · M
8.2

Match Events

45+2'
C. Roberts
46'
Pedro Pereira← J. Hunt
67'
K. Palmer← K. Smith
68'
N. Eliasson← A. Williams
68'
F. Diedhiou← J. Dasilva
72'
L. Cullen← R. Brewster
72'
W. Routledge← M. van der Hoorn
83'
Y. Dhanda← C. Gallagher
87'
M. Watkins← N. Wells

Possession

42%Swansea

Shots

17Swansea

Pass accuracy

49%Swansea

Statistics

SwanseaBristol
Overview
42%Possession58%
17Total Shots14
2Corners8
8Fouls11
Shots
17Total Shots14
7On Target1
6Off Target5
4Blocked8
9Inside Box11
8Outside Box3
Passing
42%Possession58%
402Total Passes520
318Accurate Passes431
79%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
8Fouls11
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Swansea vs Bristol City

Swansea beat Bristol City 1-0 in Championship on July 18, 2020.

Goals: C. Roberts (45+2').

Bristol City controlled possession (58%) and registered 14 shots to 17.

The match was played at Liberty Stadium in Swansea.