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SV Wehen vs Fortuna Dusseldorf — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Wehen
SV Wehen
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Fortuna Dusseldorf
Fortuna Dusseldorf
4/13/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 29BRITA-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

SV Wehen31%
×Draw25%
Fortuna Dusseldorf44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Wehen
1.29
Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.59

Fortuna Dusseldorf creates 23% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 102 away

creates per match

SV Wehen
1.19
Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.38

allows per match

SV Wehen
1.81
Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.39

finishing

SV Wehen+0.00on par
Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Wehen ↓

Fortuna Dusseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

SV Wehen or draw
56%
SV Wehen or Fortuna Dusseldorf
75%
Draw or Fortuna Dusseldorf
69%

Winning margin

SV Wehen wins by 2+
13%
Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

SV Wehen 1+ goals
72%
SV Wehen 2+ goals
37%
SV Wehen 3+ goals
14%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals
80%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals
47%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

SV Wehen (draw refunded)
41%
Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Wehen at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 36 matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.39 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Wehen attack 1.19 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.38 + SV Wehen defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SV Wehen scores more
31%
level
25%
Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more
44%

Fortuna Dusseldorf at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fortuna Dusseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: SV Wehen 0–2 Fortuna Dusseldorf

Fortuna Dusseldorf beat SV Wehen 2-0 in 2. Bundesliga on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at BRITA-Arena in Wiesbaden.