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Fortuna Dusseldorf vs SV Wehen — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Fortuna Dusseldorf
Fortuna Dusseldorf
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
SV Wehen
SV Wehen
11/3/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 12Düsseldorf Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf45%
×Draw24%
SV Wehen30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.65
SV Wehen
1.31

Fortuna Dusseldorf creates 26% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 36 away

creates per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.77
SV Wehen
1.31

allows per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.31
SV Wehen
1.53

finishing

Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.00on par
SV Wehen+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Dusseldorf ↓

SV Wehen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Fortuna Dusseldorf or draw
70%
Fortuna Dusseldorf or SV Wehen
76%
Draw or SV Wehen
55%

Winning margin

Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+
24%
SV Wehen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals
81%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals
49%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals
23%
SV Wehen 1+ goals
73%
SV Wehen 2+ goals
38%
SV Wehen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)
60%
SV Wehen (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Dusseldorf at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.31 · 102 matches

SV Wehen away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.77 + SV Wehen defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.65

SV Wehen attack 1.31 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more
45%
level
24%
SV Wehen scores more
30%

Fortuna Dusseldorf at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fortuna Dusseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortuna Dusseldorf vs SV Wehen

SV Wehen beat Fortuna Dusseldorf 3-1 in 2. Bundesliga on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Düsseldorf Arena in Düsseldorf.