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Fortuna Dusseldorf vs SV Wehen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Fortuna Dusseldorf
Fortuna Dusseldorf
CANC
13:00
SV Wehen
SV Wehen
8/18/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf49%
×Draw24%
SV Wehen27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.73
SV Wehen
1.21

Fortuna Dusseldorf creates 43% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.60
SV Wehen
1.43

allows per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.00
SV Wehen
1.86

finishing

Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.00on par
SV Wehen+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Dusseldorf ↓

SV Wehen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Fortuna Dusseldorf or draw
73%
Fortuna Dusseldorf or SV Wehen
76%
Draw or SV Wehen
51%

Winning margin

Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+
27%
SV Wehen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals
82%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals
52%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals
25%
SV Wehen 1+ goals
70%
SV Wehen 2+ goals
34%
SV Wehen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)
65%
SV Wehen (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Dusseldorf at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

SV Wehen away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.60 + SV Wehen defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.73

SV Wehen attack 1.43 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more
49%
level
24%
SV Wehen scores more
27%

Fortuna Dusseldorf at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fortuna Dusseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Fortuna Dusseldorf host SV Wehen

August 18, 2020: Fortuna Dusseldorf take on SV Wehen in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.