Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SV Sandhausen vs Hamburger SV — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Sandhausen
SV Sandhausen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
J. Dompé 3'
5/28/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 34BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

SV Sandhausen30%
×Draw24%
Hamburger SV45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Sandhausen
1.29
Hamburger SV
1.63

Hamburger SV creates 26% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 109 away

creates per match

SV Sandhausen
1.16
Hamburger SV
1.80

allows per match

SV Sandhausen
1.45
Hamburger SV
1.43

finishing

SV Sandhausen+0.00on par
Hamburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Sandhausen ↓

Hamburger SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

SV Sandhausen or draw
55%
SV Sandhausen or Hamburger SV
76%
Draw or Hamburger SV
70%

Winning margin

SV Sandhausen wins by 2+
13%
Hamburger SV wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

SV Sandhausen 1+ goals
72%
SV Sandhausen 2+ goals
37%
SV Sandhausen 3+ goals
14%
Hamburger SV 1+ goals
80%
Hamburger SV 2+ goals
48%
Hamburger SV 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

SV Sandhausen (draw refunded)
40%
Hamburger SV (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Sandhausen at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 97 matches

Hamburger SV away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.43 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Sandhausen attack 1.16 + Hamburger SV defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Hamburger SV attack 1.80 + SV Sandhausen defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

SV Sandhausen scores more
30%
level
24%
Hamburger SV scores more
45%

Hamburger SV at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
J. DompéHamburger SVHamburger SV · F
8.2

Match Events

3'
J. Dompé↳ R. Königsdörffer
19'
A. Suhonen← L. Bénes
30'
Anssi Suhonen
50'
Sonny Kittel
60'
B. Ajdini← D. Diekmeier
60'
M. Pulkrab← F. Evina
65'
J. Ganda← D. Đumić
72'
F. Bilbija← R. Königsdörffer
82'
A. Sicker← M. Papela
83'
K. Ademi← C. Kinsombi
87'
E. Krahn← S. Kittel
89'
Kemal Ademi
90+4'
Robert Glatzel

Possession

50%SV

Shots

8SV

Pass accuracy

50%SV

Statistics

SVHamburger
Overview
50%Possession50%
8Total Shots13
2Corners8
8Fouls10
Shots
8Total Shots13
1On Target3
4Off Target8
3Blocked2
6Inside Box10
2Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
379Total Passes377
284Accurate Passes286
75%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls10
1Yellow Cards3

2. Bundesliga: SV Sandhausen 0–1 Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV beat SV Sandhausen 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on May 28, 2023.

Goals: J. Dompé (3').

SV Sandhausen controlled possession (50%) and registered 8 shots to 13.

The match was played at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald in Sandhausen.