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Hamburger SV vs SV Sandhausen — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
SV Sandhausen
SV Sandhausen
R. Glatzel 80', 27'
A. Zhirov 74' (OG)
L. Reis 56'
C. Kinsombi 68'
C. Soukou 49'
11/12/20222. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 17Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Hamburger SV54%
×Draw23%
SV Sandhausen23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamburger SV
1.85
SV Sandhausen
1.13

Hamburger SV creates 64% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 93 away

creates per match

Hamburger SV
2.15
SV Sandhausen
1.17

allows per match

Hamburger SV
1.09
SV Sandhausen
1.56

finishing

Hamburger SV+0.00on par
SV Sandhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV ↓

SV Sandhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hamburger SV or draw
77%
Hamburger SV or SV Sandhausen
77%
Draw or SV Sandhausen
46%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV wins by 2+
31%
SV Sandhausen wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hamburger SV 1+ goals
84%
Hamburger SV 2+ goals
55%
Hamburger SV 3+ goals
28%
SV Sandhausen 1+ goals
68%
SV Sandhausen 2+ goals
31%
SV Sandhausen 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)
70%
SV Sandhausen (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.09 · 109 matches

SV Sandhausen away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.56 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV attack 2.15 + SV Sandhausen defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.85

SV Sandhausen attack 1.17 + Hamburger SV defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hamburger SV scores more
54%
level
23%
SV Sandhausen scores more
23%

Hamburger SV at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
R. GlatzelHamburger SVHamburger SV · F
8.9

Match Events

18'
Ahmed Kutucu
27'
R. Glatzel↳ J. Dompé
37'
Phillipp Ochs
49'
C. Soukou
56'
L. Reis↳ M. Muheim
67'
Christian Kinsombi
68'
C. Kinsombi
74'
A. ZhirovOwn goal
80'
R. Glatzel↳ L. Bénes
81'
A. Suhonen← L. Bénes
84'
J. Bachmann← D. Kinsombi
84'
M. Ritzmaier← T. Trybull
84'
K. Ademi← A. Kutucu
85'
V. Zumberi← R. Königsdörffer
89'
Sonny Kittel
90+2'
Bashkim Ajdini
90+3'
F. Bilbija← S. Kittel
90+3'
X. Amaechi← J. Dompé

Possession

63%Hamburger

Shots

19Hamburger

Pass accuracy

53%Hamburger

Statistics

HamburgerSV
Overview
63%Possession37%
19Total Shots8
4Corners0
11Fouls16
Shots
19Total Shots8
6On Target3
7Off Target3
6Blocked2
13Inside Box3
6Outside Box5
Passing
63%Possession37%
552Total Passes326
468Accurate Passes240
85%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls16
1Yellow Cards4
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Hamburger SV vs SV Sandhausen

Hamburger SV beat SV Sandhausen 4-2 in 2. Bundesliga on November 12, 2022.

Goals: R. Glatzel (27', 80'), C. Soukou (49'), L. Reis (56'), C. Kinsombi (68'), A. Zhirov (74' o.g.).

Hamburger SV controlled possession (63%) and registered 19 shots to 8.

The match was played at Volksparkstadion in Hamburg.