Hamburger SV 2–1 SV Sandhausen: Result & Stats

Hamburger SV

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

SV Sandhausen

M. Heyer 90+6'

D. Kinsombi 74' (pen)

J. Bachmann 87'

9/11/2021

2. Bundesliga · Round 6Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Hamburger SV54%

×Draw23%

SV Sandhausen23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamburger SVExpected goals in this matchSV Sandhausen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.13

Hamburger SV

1.85

SV Sandhausen

1.13

Hamburger SV creates 64% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 93 away

2.15

creates per match

1.17

1.09

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Hamburger SV

2.15

SV Sandhausen

1.17

allows per match

Hamburger SV

1.09

SV Sandhausen

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamburger SV+0.00on par

SV Sandhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV ↓

SV Sandhausen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Hamburger SV or draw

77%

Hamburger SV or SV Sandhausen

77%

Draw or SV Sandhausen

46%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV wins by 2+

31%

SV Sandhausen wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Hamburger SV 1+ goals

84%

Hamburger SV 2+ goals

55%

Hamburger SV 3+ goals

28%

SV Sandhausen 1+ goals

68%

SV Sandhausen 2+ goals

31%

SV Sandhausen 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)

70%

SV Sandhausen (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.09 · 109 matches

SV Sandhausen away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.56 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV attack 2.15 + SV Sandhausen defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.85

SV Sandhausen attack 1.17 + Hamburger SV defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hamburger SV scores more

54%

level

23%

SV Sandhausen scores more

23%

Hamburger SV at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

S. Kittel

Hamburger SV · F

8.0

Match Events

11'

Marcel Ritzmaier

61'

B. Jatta← M. Wintzheimer

62'

C. Soukou← C. Okoroji

67'

69'

71'

72'

72'

74'

D. KinsombiPenalty

75'

C. Benschop← D. Keita-Ruel

75'

C. Kinsombi← A. Esswein

75'

D. Diekmeier← B. Ajdini

82'

C. Conteh← E. Zenga

87'

J. Bachmann↳ C. Conteh

88'

M. Muheim← R. Glatzel

88'

M. Kaufmann← S. Kittel

90+6'

M. Heyer↳ L. Reis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HamburgerSV

Overview

74%Possession26%

24Total Shots9

15Corners3

4Fouls10

Shots

24Total Shots9

9On Target3

11Off Target4

4Blocked2

20Inside Box6

4Outside Box3

Passing

74%Possession26%

609Total Passes210

524Accurate Passes127

86%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

4Fouls10

0Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0