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SV Elversberg vs FC Magdeburg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Elversberg
SV Elversberg
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Magdeburg
FC Magdeburg
4/6/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 28URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

SV Elversberg46%
×Draw22%
FC Magdeburg31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Elversberg
1.88
FC Magdeburg
1.52

SV Elversberg creates 24% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

creates per match

SV Elversberg
1.80
FC Magdeburg
1.91

allows per match

SV Elversberg
1.12
FC Magdeburg
1.95

finishing

SV Elversberg+0.42scores more
FC Magdeburg+0.01on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Elversberg ↓

FC Magdeburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

SV Elversberg or draw
69%
SV Elversberg or FC Magdeburg
78%
Draw or FC Magdeburg
54%

Winning margin

SV Elversberg wins by 2+
25%
FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SV Elversberg 1+ goals
85%
SV Elversberg 2+ goals
56%
SV Elversberg 3+ goals
29%
FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
78%
FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
45%
FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

SV Elversberg (draw refunded)
59%
FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Elversberg at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.12 · 9 matches

FC Magdeburg away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.95 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Elversberg attack 1.80 + FC Magdeburg defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.88

FC Magdeburg attack 1.91 + SV Elversberg defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

SV Elversberg scores more
46%
level
22%
FC Magdeburg scores more
31%

SV Elversberg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SV Elversberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
D. ReimannFC MagdeburgFC Magdeburg · G
8.0

Match Events

23'
Robin Fellhauer
31'
Maurice Neubauer
31'
A. Condé← J. Hugonet
46'
T. Ito← L. Schuler
52'
Tobias Müller
61'
Bryan Teixeira← A. Nollenberger
71'
Carlo Sickinger
71'
D. Martinović← P. Wanner
74'
T. Jacobsen← P. Stock
82'
L. Pinckert← M. Feil

Possession

44%SV

Shots

8SV

Pass accuracy

48%SV

Statistics

SVFC
Overview
44%Possession56%
8Total Shots11
5Corners3
12Fouls6
Shots
8Total Shots11
3On Target4
4Off Target3
1Blocked4
7Inside Box8
1Outside Box3
Passing
44%Possession56%
369Total Passes497
288Accurate Passes422
78%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls6
3Yellow Cards1
3Offsides5

Match Recap: SV Elversberg vs FC Magdeburg

SV Elversberg and FC Magdeburg drew 0-0 in 2. Bundesliga on April 6, 2024.

FC Magdeburg controlled possession (56%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in Spiesen-Elversberg.