Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

1. FC Magdeburg
1. FC Magdeburg
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
SV Elversberg
SV Elversberg
J. Malanga 80'
O. Stange 74'
T. Zimmerschied 45'
B. Conte 23'
10/5/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 8Avnet-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

1. FC Magdeburg42%
×Draw25%
SV Elversberg32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Magdeburg
1.48
SV Elversberg
1.26

1. FC Magdeburg creates 17% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

1. FC Magdeburg
1.64
SV Elversberg
1.47

allows per match

1. FC Magdeburg
1.05
SV Elversberg
1.33

finishing

1. FC Magdeburg-0.31scores less
SV Elversberg-0.09on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Magdeburg ↓

SV Elversberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

1. FC Magdeburg or draw
68%
1. FC Magdeburg or SV Elversberg
75%
Draw or SV Elversberg
58%

Winning margin

1. FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
21%
SV Elversberg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

1. FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
77%
1. FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
43%
1. FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
19%
SV Elversberg 1+ goals
72%
SV Elversberg 2+ goals
36%
SV Elversberg 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

1. FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
57%
SV Elversberg (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Magdeburg at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.05 · 12 matches

SV Elversberg away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.33 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.64 + SV Elversberg defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

SV Elversberg attack 1.47 + 1. FC Magdeburg defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

1. FC Magdeburg scores more
42%
level
25%
SV Elversberg scores more
32%

1. FC Magdeburg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "1. FC Magdeburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
B. ConteSV ElversbergSV Elversberg · M
9.6

Match Events

6'
Nicholas Mickelson
23'
B. Conte↳ N. Mickelson
45'
T. Zimmerschied↳ B. Conte
47'
Lukas Petkov
50'
Barış Atik
61'
P. Hercher← L. Musonda
61'
A. Onaiwu← R. Ghrieb
63'
O. Stange← L. Petkov
64'
F. Schmahl← A. Conde
64'
C. Sickinger← N. Mickelson
72'
M. Geschwill← T. Muller
72'
D. Stalmach← S. Gnaka
74'
O. Stange
79'
J. Malanga← T. Zimmerschied
80'
J. Malanga↳ B. Conte
84'
F. Michel← M. Breunig
89'
J. Ceka← B. Conte

Possession

56%1.

Shots

151.

Pass accuracy

52%1.

Statistics

1.SV
Overview
56%Possession44%
15Total Shots20
7Corners13
12Fouls6
Shots
15Total Shots20
5On Target8
6Off Target6
4Blocked6
10Inside Box14
5Outside Box6
Passing
56%Possession44%
439Total Passes338
376Accurate Passes268
86%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls6
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides0

2. Bundesliga: 1. FC Magdeburg 0–4 SV Elversberg

SV Elversberg beat 1. FC Magdeburg 4-0 in 2. Bundesliga on October 5, 2025.

Goals: B. Conte (23'), T. Zimmerschied (45'), O. Stange (74'), J. Malanga (80').

1. FC Magdeburg controlled possession (56%) and registered 15 shots to 20.

The match was played at Avnet-Arena in Magdeburg.