SV Elversberg 1–0 1. FC Magdeburg: Result & Stats

SV Elversberg

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

1. FC Magdeburg

L. Poreba 85'

3/6/2026

2. Bundesliga · Round 25Waldstadion Kaiserlinde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

SV Elversberg46%

×Draw22%

1. FC Magdeburg31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV ElversbergExpected goals in this match1. FC Magdeburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.52

SV Elversberg

1.88

1. FC Magdeburg

1.52

SV Elversberg creates 24% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

1.80

creates per match

1.91

1.12

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

SV Elversberg

1.80

1. FC Magdeburg

1.91

allows per match

SV Elversberg

1.12

1. FC Magdeburg

1.95

+0.42scores more than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

SV Elversberg+0.42scores more

1. FC Magdeburg+0.01on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Elversberg ↓

1. FC Magdeburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

SV Elversberg or draw

69%

SV Elversberg or 1. FC Magdeburg

78%

Draw or 1. FC Magdeburg

54%

Winning margin

SV Elversberg wins by 2+

25%

1. FC Magdeburg wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

SV Elversberg 1+ goals

85%

SV Elversberg 2+ goals

56%

SV Elversberg 3+ goals

29%

1. FC Magdeburg 1+ goals

78%

1. FC Magdeburg 2+ goals

45%

1. FC Magdeburg 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

SV Elversberg (draw refunded)

59%

1. FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Elversberg at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.12 · 9 matches

1. FC Magdeburg away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.95 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Elversberg attack 1.80 + 1. FC Magdeburg defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.88

1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.91 + SV Elversberg defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

SV Elversberg scores more

46%

level

22%

1. FC Magdeburg scores more

31%

SV Elversberg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SV Elversberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

L. Poreba

SV Elversberg · M

8.3

Match Events

28'

Dariusz Stalmach

46'

L. Musonda← L. Ulrich

55'

Barış Atik

60'

L. Schnellbacher← D. Mokwa Ntusu

72'

M. Geschwill← D. Stalmach

73'

N. Mickelson← I. Pherai

73'

B. Conte← L. Gunther

73'

R. Tachie← R. Ghrieb

82'

F. Keidel← J. Gyamerah

82'

C. Sickinger← F. Schmahl

82'

N. Pesch← A. Nollenberger

85'

L. Poreba↳ T. Zimmerschied

86'

A. Holmstrom← S. Gnaka

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SV1.

Overview

49%Possession51%

15Total Shots14

1.30Expected Goals (xG)0.94

11Corners5

4Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots14

4On Target3

5Off Target6

6Blocked5

9Inside Box7

6Outside Box7

Passing

49%Possession51%

397Total Passes424

321Accurate Passes344

81%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

-0.05Goals Prevented-0.05

Discipline

4Fouls11

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1